AN INTERESTING system is developing over our region this week which will bring the much-needed rain we have all been waiting for. I expect up to 50mm over the next few days and some areas may see more than that. Dangerous storms are forecast.

At the weekend

Saturday started out fine and clear with a light breeze from the NNW. Cloud built up in the afternoon and developed into a storm by evening. 13-33.

Sunday saw a vigorous upper trough start to move into the region from the west. It started out partly cloudy and by late afternoon a small surface trough had developed over us and storms developed. Winds were from the north for most of the day swinging to the east by the afternoon. It warmed up a bit because of the trough. 15-31.

Today

Today things should start to get exciting with storms developing over our region from early morning. An upper low will develop over NSW and combine with the surface trough to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to our region. As the trough moves in from the northwest it will stagnate and sit from the NW of the state to the SE. This is likely to generate dangerous thunderstorms with some supercell activity. Hail, flash flooding and very high winds can be expected from the NE tending to the east throughout the day. 14-26.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow should see a cut-off low develop to the east of northern NSW and start to drag moisture in from the north-east into our region. This will enhance the storm and rain activity over the Downs with rain forecast throughout the day and dangerous storms in the afternoon and evening. Hail, flash flooding and very high winds can be expected. 14-25.

Wednesday

Wednesday will see the upper low in the east move further southeast with the upper trough over Queensland moving east as a result. This will bring more rain, storms and gusty wind onto the Downs and Granite Belt. Northerly winds should blow for most of the day while tending to the NE during the evening as the trough once again starts to move west. 14-25.

Thursday

Thursday should be another wet day as the trough sits over the Downs once again and another surface trough develops. This will bring more showers and storms east of the trough but areas west of about Inglewood may be dry. Storms are likely to develop in the afternoon but at this stage are not expected to be severe. Winds should be from the NW during the morning tending to the NE in the afternoon and may be gusty at times. 14-26.

Friday

Friday the trough and another surface low should combine and move east to be sitting over the ranges by afternoon. This will keep the rain coming with the chance of a possible storm. Winds should swing from the northwest to the southwest throughout the day and may, once again, be gusty. 14-25.

Weekend

The weekend at this stage looks to be showery for both days with mild temperatures and winds from the southwest.

Terry West, Southern Downs Weather & Storm Chasing