A cyclone is predicted to form off the coast of WA at Christmas.
A cyclone is predicted to form off the coast of WA at Christmas.

First cyclone of the season could form by Christmas

CHRISTMAS has come early for some eager weather watchers, with models showing a tropical low forming off Australia has a good chance of developing into the first cyclone of the season.

John's Weather Channel gives the low developing out to sea off WA a "65-70% chance of developing" into a tropical cyclone.

"All models now are agreeing a tropical low will develop out to sea north of the Kimberley coast between Christmas eve and the 27th December," the JWC Facebook page advises.

"We give this a 65-70% chance of forming into a cyclone as conditions look favourable to develop into a cyclone in this area.

"Due to the upper ridge situated over northern and central Australia we think the system will push south west initially but take more a south then a south eastwards track therefore we give it 60% chance of this system making a land crossing with the west Kimberley coast and Pilbara coasts most likely impacts where the low/cyclone crosses is determined how far out to sea this system develops..."

 

A cyclone is predicted to form off the WA coast at Christmas.
A cyclone is predicted to form off the WA coast at Christmas.

JWC said it's too early to know how strong the cyclone will be.

"At this stage it is difficult to know how strong this system will get even though the GFS model has ridiculous low pressures this morning (near 930hPa) we think strong chance of a category 1 or 2 and can not rule out further strengthening," they said.

US-based iCyclone also posted about the potential cyclone on their Facebook page this morning.

"Monday morning (Australia): After a quiet start to the season, the global computer models are hinting at cyclone activity around Western Australia," the post read.

"The GFS shows a cyclone forming way N, in the Banda Sea, in about 5 days and then drifting S toward the Kimberley-followed by another cyclone after that.

"The Euro is less threatening, showing a cyclone skirting N of the Pilbara and apparently staying offshore. Computer models aren't too accurate in the long range, but the key takeaway here is that the Indian Ocean may be getting more active soon. Stay tuned!"

 

A cyclone is predicted to form off the WA coast at Christmas.
A cyclone is predicted to form off the WA coast at Christmas.

The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to show the forecast for this potential tropical low.



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