Tony Abbott's knighthood decision costs LNP big
TONY Abbott's decision to make Prince Philip a knight last week could deny the LNP the chance to retain government.
If the PM had a spare gong it should have gone to Warwick clean-up man extraordinaire Graham Buchner.
A grassroots volunteer with a heart of gold, Sir Graham would ring well around town. Not sure if he would like it.
At least it will save money giving it to the prince; I suspect they would have had to fly Graham and his wife Margaret from Australia to Buckingham Palace for the presentation.
The back down on the Medicare charge at the start of the Queensland Election seemed like a move to help the LNP and it worked, but giving Prince Philip a knighthood a few days out showed two things, Abbott is out of touch with ordinary people and he often uses a small "c" in the word consultation, just like he did in making the paid parental leave policy on the run.
If the LNP don't form government, no one will ever know how much the Abbott announcement on Prince Philip hurt but one thing is certain, it didn't help in a volatile electorate.
I thought all through the campaign the LNP was wrong in not asking/allowing Abbott to make an appearance in the Queensland Election. All he had to do was come to the campaign launch and speak for five minutes about Newman being a good bloke.
The absence of Abbott raised questions and it didn't hurt the ALP that leader Bill Shorten ignored the rest of the nation to help out in Queensland.
The reasons for a two-party preferred swing of 12% plus are varied.
4% plus due to the sacking of 14,000 public servants, they all have relatives and friends. There were other ways to reduce staffing levels like voluntary redundancy, natural wastage etc.
Redundancies cost money, many public servants would have received a six-figure payout.
4% plus due to asset leasing. It appeared a smart political plan to lease and not sell but politicians sometimes play down the intelligence of the public. Our family had leasehold farmland on a 99-year lease but thought it was ours, not leased. How many companies stay in business for 99 years to lease an asset?
1% due to the bikie laws. Polls suggested that the vast majority of the public support the laws but bikies vote. I am not suggesting you don't make the 1% decision but this is a layman's analysis of how Newman lost or at least hasn't won the unlosable election. Crime figures were favourable for the Government but I'm not sure if that counted much.
1% due to arguments with the judiciary. I am on the right side of politics but I don't like heavy- handed judicial appointments, nor did I like increasing the amount of political donations without the need for publication.
The Attorney General should have taken a leaf out of the book of Lawrence Springborg who did a deal with the doctors after keeping the chat going.
1% due to a perception that the government wasn't listening.
Perhaps they needed a softer/more approachable deputy premier to go with Newman.
Jeff Seeney wasn't that.
1% per cent due to the loss of party MLA's almost from day one. Members resigned from the party, it didn't matter due to the majority, but fractures started early in the three years.
Newman's attitude was - if you want to go, go, and they did.
Question: How much responsibility for the LNP loss of seats should wrest with head office and the administration?
They drafted Newman and I suspect it helped increase the "for" swing in 2012 and now the "away" swing in 2015. Hopefully the loss of seats will not cast doubts on the success of the merger, engineered by our own member Lawrence Springborg.
Key points
1. Don't put a by-election swing down to by-elections usually going against the Government.
The swings to Labor in Redcliffe and Stafford were replicated in many seats.
2. Don't promise too much at election time. Labor didn't and won 43 plus seats in an 89-seat house, a gain of 34 plus seats.
3. Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them. If in doubt, re-read point 3.
4. The LNP has to form a better relationship with the independents and minor conservative parties. The LNP topped the poll in 51 out of 89 seats and will be lucky to win 42.
The cosy ALP/Greens arrangement killed the LNP on Saturday and could help put un-needed pressure on every farmer in Queensland.
5. The best election plan is to hope a minor party does all the negative anti-government campaigning and PUP did it well.