Veteran Warwick weather watchers say rain on the horizon

VETERAN Warwick weather watchers say the Rose City is long overdue for flooding rains.

It's been three years since our last major downpour of rain sent a flood down the Condamine.

Weather watchers and the Bureau of Meteorology have their eyes to the skies - with the promise of rain on the horizon.

Rex Baguley has been watching the weather from his Dragon St home for more than 20 years.

He believes flooding rain is overdue.

While Mr Baguley isn't a forecaster, he said he wouldn't be surprised if we get some heavy rain soon.

"January and February are usually our rainfall months when we usually get floods," he said.

"It's overdue. We haven't had any really heavy rain for a long time."

The Bureau of Meteorology is also predicting possible flooding rains and forecasting above-average rainfall in the region for the next three months.

Forecaster Dean Narramore said rainfall should be slightly above average.

"There's a better than 50-50 chance of seeing a wetter than average January, February and March," he said.

Forecast modelling shows a 58% chance of more than 200mm of rain in Warwick between now and Easter.

The forecasts are in stark contrast to the past two January-February periods, which have been below average according to Mr Baguley.

"Last year we had 63mm in January and 57mm in February," he said.

"In 2014 we had just 38mm and 14mm."

Mr Baguley's records show wet January-February periods in 2013, '11, '08, '05 and '04.

Despite all the talk of rain, some residents aren't convinced we're overdue for a flood.

Warwick real estate agent Helen Harm is always watching for the signs, after feeling the wrath of three floods in two years.

"I don't think we're overdue for a flood - we're just overdue for some good rain," she said.

"It doesn't feel like it's going to be that much rain to me."

Rainfall

January and February

2015: 120mm

2014: 52mm

2013: 256.4mm

2012: 126mm



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